Thinking In Bets Annie Duke Pdf ((link))

After something happens, our brain rewrites history to make it seem predictable. Thinking in Bets provides tools to reconstruct past decisions honestly, acknowledging what you actually knew versus what you learned after the fact.

The book teaches you to replace "I know" with "I believe." Specifically, Duke encourages thinking in probabilities (e.g., "I am 70% sure this will work") rather than binaries (e.g., "This will work"). This allows you to update your beliefs as new information comes in. thinking in bets annie duke pdf

This is the #1 action item from the book. Write down what you decided, why you decided it, and what you predicted would happen (including percentages). After something happens, our brain rewrites history to